KOMPUTER JADUL-, Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices by the end of 2025 could soar to US$ 3,300 per ounce or Rp 53,806,500 (exchange rate of Rp 16,310) if policy uncertainty, including concerns about a tariff war, remains high.
However, if conditions are more conducive, gold prices are estimated to reach US$ 3,100 or Rp 50,545,300 (exchange rate of Rp 16,310) per ounce. This latest estimate remains higher than the previous US$ 2,890 per ounce.
Goldman estimates that this is in line with structurally higher central bank demand which will drive gold prices up by 9% by the end of the year. This is combined with a gradual increase in ETF ownership along with falling interest rates.
Goldman Sachs revised its central bank demand assumption to 50 tons per month from the previous estimate of 41 tons. If purchases average 70 tonnes per month, gold prices could rise to US$3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025, assuming speculative positions return to normal.
Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, Goldman Sachs expects gold prices to reach US$3,060 per ounce in the same period. The bank stressed that market conditions will depend largely on the monetary policy implemented.
Reiterating its "Go for Gold" recommendation, Goldman Sachs stated that while declining uncertainty could lead to a tactical correction in gold prices, gold remains a very strong hedge. This is especially true amid potential trade tensions, the risk of Fed subordination, and financial threats or recessions that could push prices to very high ranges.
Additionally, if concerns about US fiscal sustainability intensify, Goldman Sachs sees gold prices rising an additional 5% to US$3,250 an ounce by December 2025.
Fears about inflation and fiscal risks could drive higher speculative positions and ETF flows, while concerns about US debt sustainability could prompt central banks to increase their gold purchases, especially those with large reserves in US Treasuries.
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